IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

The Final Draft of the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is due out at the end of this month. It is under active consideration this week. In anticipation of this event, I want to review the relevance of this group and its work.

Under the auspices of the United Nations (UN), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international scientific body for the assessment of climate change. It reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters.

Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current information. IPCC aims to reflect a range of views and expertise. The Secretariat coordinates all the IPCC work and liaises with Governments. It is supported by WMO and UNEP and hosted at WMO headquarters in Geneva.

Established in 1988, the IPCC has produced four previous Assessment Reports (1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007). The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) will provide a clear view of the current state of scientific knowledge relevant to climate change. It will comprise three Working Group (WG) reports and a Synthesis Report (SYR). It is the first of these WG reports that is due out at the end of this week.

What will we learn?

We don't know yet, really. The report has not yet be published. Not surprisingly, however, there have been leaks, some of them controversial. It has been published, for example, that the report will show that "carbon dioxide could have a smaller impact on global temperatures than scientists predicted in 2007, opening the possibility greenhouse gas emissions do not have to be radically cut." At the same time it has also been reported that the effects of global warming are more severe than previously thought. Writing the report is an iterative process. How about if we wait and see what it says at the end of the week?

Nonetheless, no one is predicting that AR5 will substantially reverse previous Assessment Reports in the consensus that global warming is caused primarily by human emissions of greenhouse gasses. Pertinent questions will of course include the relative degrees of various forcings, revised rates of change, and likely consequences of climate change. Some of these findings may be somewhat speculative as well, but this report, the most up to date information available, is not expected to call into question the reality of man-made global warming and climate change. If it does, I will be among the first to post such a statement here.

We "Did the Math." Now what?

By all accounts, the screening of Do the Math at Market Street Cinema last month was a success: good crowd, lot's of enthusiasm. But what exactly did we accomplish? Here are my thoughts ten days out.

First, a few of us had previously seen the film online, but viewing it on the big screen with a large gathering is a whole different experience, very inspiring and worth the effort. Second, I believe it raised awareness in the community by a small but significant amount. Not a few people said they had no idea of the magnitude of the issue, and others already sympathetic to the cause said they learned a lot. Third, the screening led directly to several actions toward divestment and reinvestment being initiated. This takes time, of course, but the ball was started rolling. (For those interested in learning more about divestment and reinvestment GreenFaith is offering a Webinar on July 15 you can view at home, live or recorded.) Fourth, several people asked how they can get a copy of the film to show their friends. Not only the trailer, but the movie is on YouTube. Finally, it's gratifying to have brought together many related groups and causes. At the risk of leaving some out, I counted individuals with ties to:

• Arkansas Interfaith Power and Light
• Sierra Club, Central Arkansas Group
• Just Communities of Arkansas
• Little Rock Summer of Solutions
• GreenFaith
• Episcopal Peace Fellowship of Arkansas
• Occupy Little Rock
• Occupy Arkansas
• Arkansans Concerned About Oil Pipelines
• Mayflower Arkansas Oil Spill
• St. Margaret's Episcopal Church

So what do we do now? Soon I hope to write a separate essay on what our next steps might be, but the second film in the One in Seven Billion series is Occupy Love, a documentary that frames the crises of our time as the greatest love story on earth.

 

400 parts per million

In case you missed it last week, for the first time in human history, concentrations of carbon dioxide, the primary global warming pollutant, hit 400 parts per million in the Earth's atmosphere. This is alarming. When I reflect on the future of our planet, it is easy to succumb to pessimism and believe I am powerless to make an ounce of difference. After all, I can only do so much and surely that is not enough. Who am I to imagine that out of seven billion people on our planet, my actions can change a thing, anything at all? What I am slowly coming to realize is that the words "only" and "not' must be crossed out. "I can only do so much, and surely that is not enough." If I do what I am called to do, who am I to say that this is not enough? It will be enough, and it will make all the difference in the world.

So at least for now this is my calling: to raise awareness of the issues among my friends (plus theirs and possibly even theirs). That is all, nothing more, nothing less. Awareness is a powerful tool. The English word awareness comes from the same ancient root as "steward", "guard", and "revere". We are expected to be stewards of the Earth, to guard and revere it. We do this by becoming aware of how our actions affect our island home. Over the past few months, I have been exploring ways of raising awareness about climate change and its causes through online activities. I'm still working on this, but lately I have found several new documentaries that I believe I am called to share with the people of Central Arkansas in one way or another. I will write about how at the end of this post, but first let me describe these compelling movies.

Home

Although "Home, the movie" was new to me, it is actually not new, released June 5, 2009. It has been seen over 15 million times on YouTube and watched by more than 400 million people around the globe, a number I would like to see increased in Central Arkansas by several dozen or possibly several hundred. It was made by filmmaker Yann Arthus-Bertrand who worked for free for 3 years to make the film, conceived as a gift to the public. It is the first environmental film made using only aerial photography, shot entirely from the air and filmed in 120 locations in over 50 countries. You can watch the Trailer here. "In a single lifetime the earth has been more radically changed than by all previous generations of humanity. Know that the solutions are there today. We all have the power to change. So what are we waiting for?" The rules for organizing a public screening of home are: (1) the screening will be free (no entrance fee), (2) the film will be screened in its full length, with sound and music, (3) the film will be shown in optimal screening conditions. I have downloaded this film as an mp4 file, but higher resolution may be available. It is 93 minutes in length.

Do the Math

This film is new, released just this month. The Do the Math documentary is a 42-minute film about the rising movement in the United States to change the terrifying maths of the climate crisis and challenge the fossil fuel industry. While it is set in the United States, the maths the film outlines apply globally. You can watch the Trailer here. "This is the biggest emergency the human family has faced since it came out of the cave. ... We have a moral catastrophe on our hands. ... What's at stake now is civilization itself. ... This is the only question that will matter in the long run." Registering a local Do the Math screening is easy. I have downloaded an mp4 file, but higher resolution may be available. It is 42 minutes in length, and it is a must watch.

Occupy Love

Occupy Love explores the growing realization that the dominant system of power is failing to provide us with health, happiness or meaning. The old paradigm that concentrates wealth, founded on the greed of the few, is causing economic and ecological collapse. The resulting crisis has become the catalyst for a profound awakening: millions of people are deciding that enough is enough – the time has come to create a new world, a world that works for all life. You can watch the Trailer here. "The lover knows that more for you is more for me. We live in a time of record-breaking crisis, but it's also a time of record-breaking vision. Being awake is love, that's what it is. There is no love quite like that, the willingness to put it all on the line, for your neighbors, for future generations, for the rest of creation. How could this crisis be framed as a great love story?" Occupy Love screenings are flowering around the world. I have purchased (and received / watched) the Blu Ray disc of this movie. It is 86 minutes in length.

How to Share

These documentaries were meant to be shared. They were meant to be spread "virally" and they were meant to be watched and discussed together. You can begin, of course, by "liking" and "sharing" this post or link, but more importantly you can brainstorm with me about how to share these powerful videos with the wider community. I believe all three videos deserve a "screening" by the widest audience in Central Arkansas possible. If I were to pick just one of these, it would be "Do the Math", simply because it is the most succinct and most direct. It is also short enough to present to an Adult Formation class on Sunday Morning at St. Margaret's, for example. But maybe we should organize a series on, say, Tuesday or Sunday evenings in Williams Hall at St. Margaret's. If we were to do this, I would suggest showing (1) Do the Math, (2) Home, (3) Occupy Love, and (4) Do the Math again over four weeks. But Williams Hall is not the most ideal setting for a movie, so what about renting a theater? We could explore options at Market Street Cinema or Chenal 9, for example. We should not (or cannot for Home) charge an admission fee, but there would be nothing wrong with accepting donations to defray the costs of theater rental or giving to the underlying organizations.

For those of you on Facebook, please comment there. Otherwise, you may email me or comment on this blog posting.

NCA Report Findings

1. Global climate is changing, and this is apparent across the U.S. in a wide range of observations. The climate change of the past 50 years is due primarily to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels.
2. Some extreme weather and climate events have increased in recent decades, and there is new and stronger evidence that many of these increases are related to human activities.
3. Human-induced climate change is projected to continue and accelerate significantly if emissions of heat-trapping gases continue to increase.
4. Impacts related to climate change are already evident in many sectors and are expected to become increasingly challenging across the nation throughout this century and beyond.
5. Climate change threatens human health and well-being in many ways, including impacts from increased extreme weather events, wildfire, decreased air quality, diseases transmitted by insects, food, and water, and threats to mental health.
6. Infrastructure across the U.S. is being adversely affected by phenomena associated with climate change, including sea level rise, storm surge, heavy downpours, and extreme heat.
7. Reliability of water supplies is being reduced by climate change in a variety of ways that affect ecosystems and livelihoods in many regions, particularly the Southwest, the Great Plains, the Southeast, and the islands of the Caribbean and the Pacific, including the state of Hawai`i.
8. Adverse impacts to crops and livestock over the next 100 years are expected. Over the next 25 years or so, the agriculture sector is projected to be relatively resilient, even though there will be increasing disruptions from extreme heat, drought, and heavy downpours. U.S. food security and farm incomes will also depend on how agricultural systems adapt to climate changes in other regions of the world.
9. Natural ecosystems are being directly affected by climate change, including changes in biodiversity and location of species. As a result, the capacity of ecosystems to moderate the consequences of disturbances such as droughts, floods, and severe storms is being diminished.
10. Life in the oceans is changing as ocean waters become warmer and more acidic.
11. Planning for adaptation (to address and prepare for impacts) and mitigation (to reduce emissions) is increasing, but progress with implementation is limited.